Global seaborne jet fuel exports crashed to a seasonal low in April as supplies remained trapped in the Middle East and Asian refiners slashed run rates amid lower crude availability, energy flows analytics firm Vortexa said in a report on Friday.
Global seaborne exports of jet/kerosene fuels slumped to as low as 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down by 630,000 bpd from the same month last year. That's also at the lowest end of the ten-year range between 2016 and 2025, Vortexa's freight tracking data showed.
The crash in exports of jet fuel – which is the most stressed barrel during the ongoing supply shock – was not unexpected. Supplies of the fuel from the Middle East cannot move past the Strait of Hormuz, while Asian refiners slashed exports amid reduced run rates and preference and/or orders to keep more supply for their respective domestic markets.
Jet fuel supplies from Northeast Asia and India West Coast crashed and tightened the global jet fuel market so much that officials and airline executives started talking about fuel shortages in a few weeks’ time.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned in mid-April that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.
Following the slump in global flows in April, exports are set to rebound from May and June as some Asian countries and refiners will be exporting more barrels amid high margins, Ivan Mathews, Head of APAC Analysis at Vortexa, wrote.
A rebound in Northeast Asia’s jet fuel exports would be led by South Korea, which could raise refinery utilization as crude arrivals to the country are expected to recover to about 80% of pre-war levels in May, according to Mathews.
Moreover, the expected rise in jet fuel supplies from Asia in May could lead to arbitrage flows to the U.S. West Coast and Northwest Europe, the analyst said.
While higher Asian supplies would drive a modest recovery in global jet fuel exports in the coming months, incremental exports from Asia are unlikely to fully offset in the near term lost supply from the Middle East, Mathews noted.
“Until seaborne flows normalise, jet/kero cracks are expected to remain elevated relative to other refined products, incentivising refiners to maximise jet fuel yields at the margin.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
