Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea marks the first direct link between the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
While details of the July 25 incident are murky, Ukraine’s intelligence agency the SBU said its drones hit an oil platform in the Caspian Sea along with a Russian missile boat and “cargo ships that are under international sanctions.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday announced that Ukrainian forces had achieved “very good results” in long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea, including against vessels used to transport military cargo linked to Iran.
The BBC reported Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said the vessel had been carrying components for drones and missiles from Iran to Russia, not civilian cargo.
Speaking to Israel's N12, he insisted that Ukraine and Israel were confronting the same "axis of evil" on different fronts.
Iranian officials reacted angrily to the attack, saying one sailor was killed and vowed retaliation. According to Radio Free Europe, Ukraine’s top diplomat in Iran was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in protest:
"Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X, calling it "a blatant United Nations Charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war."
Kyiv will soon learn that Tehran "leaves no action unanswered," Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the national security committee in Iran's parliament, said in another post.
The Kremlin also weighed in, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov telling reporters that the Ukrainian attack should be seen as an attack on Iran itself.
Russia-Iran ties
Iran and Russia have developed a close military relationship. For example, the two US adversaries conducted joint naval exercises off southern Iran on February 19th.
The BBC notes Iran started supplying Russia with its Shahed drones in 2022, when the war between Russian and Ukraine began. Moscow has since modified the drones and used them to hit Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky told Sky News over the weekend that Tehran was planning to send ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the war. The news report suggested that short-range missiles were being supplied from 2024.
It’s not the first time Ukraine has hit targets in the Caspian Sea, which forms a strategically vital supply route between Russia and Iran.
The BBC said Ukraine has been relentlessly targeting Russian shadow fleet of oil tankers, looking to choke off a major source of revenue for the Kremlin.
Radio Free Europe said at least 12 Russian warships have been struck over the course of the Russian invasion, adding that Israel has hit Iranian targets on the Caspian in conjunction with US forces.
On March 18, about three weeks after the start of the US-Israeli campaign, Israeli jets hit the port of Bandar Anzali, sinking an unknown number of naval ships.
Experts said it was possible Ukrainian forces acted this weekend with the help of Israeli intelligence…
Wider implications
Ukraine is dismissing Iran’s threat of retaliation, with its foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, posting on X, “The regime in Tehran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine, fuelling Moscow's criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022.”
Sybiha also accused Iran of trying to shift attention away from Russia's attacks on ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports, which he said were threatening global food security, via the BBC.
The Kiev Post reported Zelensky saying “We must be careful. We must do everything to ensure that under no circumstances do we open a new front, but we must be honest. The Iranians and the North Koreans have already attacked us.”
Zelensky said he hoped the two countries would not expand their involvement but warned that Ukraine must prepare for any development.
“We have to be ready for everything. Just be ready and understand that we cannot trust these people.”
The president said both countries had supplied Russia with weapons without any preceding Ukrainian escalation against them.
“At the very beginning, without any statements or any escalation on our part, the Iranians provided weapons, the North Koreans provided weapons – drones, missiles and 155mm artillery shells,” Zelensky said.
Experts cited by Radio Free Europe said it’s unclear what Iran could do to retaliate.
"Tehran is clearly angry, but it has very limited ability to project military power against Ukraine," said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran's military who is a professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.
"If it decides to respond, I'd expect something indirect such as cyber operations, intelligence activity, support for Russian operations, or possibly targeting Ukrainian interests abroad rather than a conventional military strike."
According to Olha Polischuk, research manager for Eastern Europe at ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), “Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian vessel is less about opening a new front against Tehran and more about disrupting supply routes between Iran and Russia.
“The attack comes amid a broader expansion of its campaign against the networks supporting Russia’s war effort. Since May, Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russia’s oil infrastructure and maritime assets, including an ongoing wave of drone strikes in July that hit nearly 200 Russian and Russian-linked tankers, cargo ships and tugboats across the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.
"The Iranian vessel can be seen as an extension of that strategy. Iran remains an important military partner for Moscow, while the Caspian Sea provides a direct transport route between the two countries. “Targeting that route allows Kyiv to put further pressure on Russia’s supply networks beyond the traditional battlefield.”
Signal to Washington
Polischuk also argues the timing of the attack was not a coincidence.
“With the US now intensifying its campaign against Iran, the strike comes during a renewed period of alignment between Washington and Kyiv. It serves Ukraine’s immediate interests against Russia, while also demonstrating that Kyiv and Washington increasingly have a shared adversary in Tehran.”
Radio Free Europe cited Luke Coffey, a Russia expert at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, saying that the attack was likely done to get the attention of the Trump administration.
Zelensky was scheduled to meet President Trump at the White House on Tuesday. The publication said Zelensky was expected to raise earlier Ukrainian claims that Russia has been supplying Iran with satellite images and other intelligence, helping Iran target US facilities in the Gulf region, including CIA stations.
A Western defence source corroborated the Ukrainian president’s claim, telling The Telegraph that there had been a notable improvement in Iran's precision strikes and target selection since a ceasefire with the US broke down earlier this month.
The publication noted that despite Russia’s alleged support for Iran, Trump has been reluctant to criticize Russian President Putin.
Radio Free Europe cited Nicole Grajewski, a Russia-Iran expert with Sciences Po, the French university, saying that The Americans "really don't, for some reason, want to show that the Russians are involved in the [Iran] war," she said. "So in that sense, yeah, it complicates things because the Ukrainians are coming out and saying that there's direct Russian involvement."
The Trump administration "wants to compartmentalize the two wars," she said.
By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com
