The signs are multiplying that Vladimir Putin’s powers of coercion are rapidly fading, and his chief instruments of regional leverage are dissolving.
Not only have Ukrainian drones put Russian forces on their heels in the two countries’ long-running conflict, but they are also threatening to tear apart the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Moscow’s version of NATO. Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s failure to prevent the reelection of Putin’s nemesis in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, is helping to expose the weakness of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Russian-led alternative to the European Union.
In mid-June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued an ultimatum to Belarus, which has been described as a “captive ally” of the Kremlin: immediately cease supporting the Russian military or face a drone barrage. Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko appeared to comply, at least in part, stating that Minsk didn’t want to be drawn into the war. Lukashenko’s actions quickly drew Russian ire.
To counter the Russian pressure, Lukashenko took a quick trip to Beijing, where he secured an endorsement for Belarus’ sovereignty and territorial integrity from Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping. Lukashenko’s maneuvering exposed the limits of the Kremlin’s leverage over what is widely seen as a Russian vassal state.
The Ukrainian power play against Belarus has had broader implications for the CSTO, which, like NATO, has a similar ‘attack-against-one-is-an-attack-on-all’ provision in its charter. Accordingly, any Ukrainian action against Belarus, a CSTO member, would, in theory, require a collective response by other member states.
But in recent days, two other members, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, have clearly indicated they have no intention of getting dragged into the Russia-Ukraine war, suggesting that the CSTO is now merely an alliance on paper.
"Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have expressed concerns about being drawn into the Ukrainian conflict; their representatives stated that decisions regarding the activation of the military assistance clause under the CSTO treaty would have to be made by their parliaments, but noted that this could meet with opposition from lawmakers," Nezygar, a respected Russian military blog, reported on its Telegram channel.
Nezygar went on to quote an unnamed Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry official as saying, “An act of aggression by Ukraine against Belarus must be formally recognized by a UN or Security Council resolution; without such a decision, the CSTO has no authority to respond to the situation."
Any such resolution would be highly unlikely to survive potential vetoes from permanent council members, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.
The EAEU is facing a similar credibility crisis. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, both full members, have complained in recent months that the economic bloc is dysfunctional and set up to serve Russia’s economic interests.
To highlight the EAEU’s ineffectiveness in enabling free trade, Kazakhstan was considering a blanket six-month ban on wheat imports, including from other EAEU members, to protect local farmers.
Pashinyan, who wants to integrate Armenia into Western political and economic institutions, appears intent on pushing the EAEU over a cliff. Armenia is still ostensibly an EAEU member.
As part of its unsuccessful influence campaign to prevent Pashinyan’s reelection in Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary vote, Russia imposed import bans on a variety of Armenian food products, claiming that they do not meet quality control standards. Pashinyan is using the Russian ban to expose the EAEU as fictional. Armenian officials assert that the country is finding new markets for goods, and those new customers do not have any quality-control concerns.
“The EAEU must clearly state whether it exists or not” as a viable trade organization, the Russian news outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta quoted Pashinyan as saying.
By Eurasianet
