The world is installing wind turbines and solar panels faster than ever, but coal still generates more electricity than any other source, and by a huge margin.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects coal-fired power plants to generate 10,974 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026, nearly one-third of the 33,313 TWh of electricity produced worldwide. Natural gas is a distant second at 6,976 TWh, followed by hydropower at 4,536 TWh, solar at 3,289 TWh, wind at 2,898 TWh and nuclear at 2,871 TWh.
In other words, coal will generate nearly as much electricity this year as natural gas and hydropower combined. It will produce 77% more power than wind and solar combined.
That creates an awkward moment for the global energy transition.
The IEA expects renewables collectively to overtake coal in 2026 for the first time. But that requires adding hydropower, solar, wind, bioenergy, geothermal and other renewables together. No individual source is close to coal.
And this year, coal is getting another unexpected boost from the global gas market.
The Iran War Driver
The IEA entered 2026 expecting coal-fired power generation to fall. Its Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 forecast global coal generation would decline 1.3% this year as renewable output surged and natural gas displaced coal in some markets. But the ongoing U.S.-Iran war has prompted a change in the forecast.
The loss of LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz sent gas prices sharply higher in Europe and Asia, making coal considerably more competitive for power generators able to switch between fuels. The IEA now expects gas-fired generation to remain essentially flat in 2026, compared with the 1.3% increase it expected before the war.
Coal generation is now expected to rise instead.
Wind and solar can take an increasing share of annual generation, but utilities still need power when the wind slows, the sun goes down or demand suddenly jumps. Natural gas has increasingly filled that role in markets trying to reduce coal consumption. So, when you take that cheap gas away, coal suddenly becomes more attractive.
That is exactly what is happening in parts of Asia and Europe this year.
China And India Make The Numbers Work
Coal’s dominance is becoming more concentrated in Asia, with China alone generating more than half of the world’s coal-fired electricity. Coal supplied around 55% of Chinese electricity in 2025, even as the country continued building more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, according to the IEA.
India is even more dependent, with coal supplying roughly 71% of Indian electricity last year. Across Southeast Asia, the share was about 48%.
For China and India, it’s not as simple as replacing one form of electric power generation with another. The Asian push to build massive new electricity supplies from cleaner sources is not just about the environment. This is a drive to meet rising demand.
China is simultaneously the world’s largest coal consumer and its largest renewable-energy market. Record renewable installations have helped drive coal’s share of Chinese electricity lower, but total power demand is so large that the country’s coal fleet continues to generate vast amounts of electricity.
Solar Is Growing Fast, But Coal Has A Massive Head Start
The direction of the global power market is clear: It’s building clean sources of energy, but the road is starting to look a lot longer.
Solar and wind are closing the gap quickly, but they are starting from much further behind. The IEA expects solar generation to jump around 30% this year and wind by roughly 10%, helping push total renewable generation up more than 8%.
Even after that growth, solar will generate 3,289 TWh in 2026 and wind 2,898 TWh, compared with 10,974 TWh from coal. Combined, wind and solar will produce 6,187 TWh, which is still 44% less electricity than coal.
Renewables only move ahead if we add hydropower, which will generate another 4,536 TWh this year. That’s the only perspective that allows us to say that renewables overtake coal this year. The comparison’s problem is that coal is a fossil fuel and we aren’t comparing renewables and fossil fuels here.
Coal Could Stay On Top Through 2030
The IEA expects coal to remain the world’s largest individual source of electricity through 2030. The Electricity 2026 outlook has global coal-fired generation declining by only around 0.9% annually between 2026 and 2030. Renewables will expand far faster and are expected to cover virtually all growth in global electricity demand over that period.
Coal’s share of the global power mix will continue falling, but the amount of electricity generated from coal is expected to decline much more slowly. The IEA forecasts coal-fired generation falling by an average of just 0.9% annually between 2026 and 2030.
The world currently gets nearly 11,000 TWh of electricity every year from coal. Replacing that requires renewable generation to do two jobs at once: supply the additional electricity demanded and simultaneously displace coal.
The world can install more renewable capacity than ever before while continuing to burn enormous amounts of coal.
Replacing coal becomes much harder when the world also needs more electricity. The IEA expects global power demand to grow 3.6% this year, and another 3.8% in 2027, bringing consumption from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh in 2027. China’s electricity demand alone is forecast to grow 5.5% this year, while India’s jumps 7%.
For renewables, it’s two steps forward, three steps back. Much of the new renewable generation being built has to meet new demand before it can displace coal.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
