Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500, saying the benchmark stock index could finish 2024 as high as 6,300.
It’s the third time since last December that Goldman has lifted its forecast for the S&P 500. The latest upward revision comes as the index posts a string of all-time highs and nears the 5,500 mark.
The S&P 500 has recorded 29 record closes so far in 2024 as the rally in U.S. stocks continues.
Goldman Sachs has outlined several scenarios that could see the S&P 500 end the year either higher or lower.
In the most optimistic scenario, the S&P 500 would end 2024 at a record high of 6,300.
However, the index could end 2024 as low as 4,800 if investors grow wary of the economy and start to price in a risk of recession.
On average, the investment bank sees the S&P 500 ending the year at 5,600, up from a previous forecast of 5,200.
Wild cards in Goldman Sachs’ forecast include the U.S. presidential election this November and corporate earnings that could moderate in coming months.
Goldman Sachs attributes the current record-braking rally in the S&P 500 to what it calls “mega-cap exceptionalism.”
The team of analysts at Goldman Sachs note that the S&P 500’s 15% year-to-date gain is largely due to five stocks — Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META).
Those five stocks are up a collective 45% this year and account for 25% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalization, says Goldman.
The stock of Goldman Sachs is up 15% on the year, matching the gain in the S&P 500. Shares of Goldman Sachs currently trade at $446.46 U.S. each.
