- Democrats regain control of US Senate and House
- Trump said he has no plans to attack Iran
- US dollar drops across the board
USDCAD open (6:00 am): 1.3960, overnight range 1.3946-1.4015, close 1.4011, WTI $95.36, Gold $4,045.29.
The Canadian dollar rose alongside the majors on widespread US dollar weakens after the Democrats won the US mid-term elections, decisively. The upside is that Trump now comes with a leash. The downside is that this is the same party that peddled wack-a-doodle policies such as defunding the police and rushing the US into a renewable energy economy with little thought to the bill, plus a host of others.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s Tuesday appearance before the House of Commons Finance Committee added next to nothing on monetary policy compared to last week’s monetary policy meeting.
WTI slipped to $94.44 from $97.11, brushing aside an API report showing crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels last week. More selling pressure merged after Trump said there is no immediate plan to strike Iran.
Markets took the US election results in stride, largely because the votes were still being counted. Bond traders barely touched 2- and 10-year yields, gold jumped more than $110.00 and the US dollar index gapped down from 101.91 to 101.29.
Asia finished mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.67%, while Japan’s Topix shed 0.89% and Australia’s ASX 200 gave back 0.59%.
At 7:25 am, Europe is in full rally mode. France’s CAC-40 leads the charge with a 1.48% gain, Germany’s DAX is ahead 1.38% and the UK FTSE 100 has added 1.31%. S&P 500 futures are 0.89% higher, the US 10-year yield is 4.911%, the DXY sits at 101.32 and gold (XAUUSD) is trading at 4,049.53.
EURUSD pushed toward the top of a 1.1187-1.1265 range as US dollar sellers came out in force. October’s flash HICP landed right on forecast at 4.0% y/y, up from 3.8% in September, which only strengthens the case for an ECB hike in December. The activity numbers were softer, with the Composite PMI Output Index slipping to 51.7 from 53.1 and the Services PMI Business Activity Index easing to 51.4 from 53.0.
GBPUSD climbed within a 1.3407-1.3499 band, catching the same post-election updraft that lifted every G-7 currency against the greenback. Further gains could be hard to come by with the Bank of England’s policy decision due tomorrow. October’s services PMI rose to an eight-month high of 52.8 from 52.1,
USDJPY ground higher in a 157.40-158.76 range before running into safe-haven yen buying, fed by lingering nerves over tech stocks and fresh intervention warnings from Tokyo. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said today the government is watching the market with a “high sense of urgency.”
AUDUSD shot up through a 0.6954-0.7023 range on broad US dollar weakness, which went a long way toward soothing the sting of Tuesday’s dovish RBA rate hike.
Canada’s September merchandise trade numbers are due this morning.
Today’s US data includes ADP employment report, the US September trade numbers, and the October ISM services index.
