· Trump delays another planned attack on Iran
· Cad/US interest rate spreads weighing on Loonie
· US dollar opens mixed to higher.
USDCAD open: 1.3777, overnight range 1.3742-1.3779, close 1.3745, WTI 102.42, Gold 4,485.52
The Canadian dollar continues to suffer from CAD/US yield differentials which have moved sharply against the Loonie. Both the 2-year and 10-year spreads are hovering near multi-month extremes, a signal that the market is increasingly positioning for a more accommodative Bank of Canada set against a Fed that stays higher for longer. April CPI data released yesterday came in below forecasts, a result distorted by the surge in oil prices, and does nothing to challenge the dovish BoC narrative.
WTI crude danced between 100.88 and 104.45 before settling just above the session low. Oil failed to sustain a meaningful bid despite Trump's latest sabre-rattling.
Trump is rattling sabres at Iran again, threatening a "big hit" if Tehran refuses to meet his demands. Iran's response was warning it would strike back beyond the region.
WTI crude danced between 100.88 and 104.45 before settling just above the session low. Oil failed to sustain a meaningful bid despite Trump's latest sabre-rattling.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson joined the growing Fed consensus that policy is appropriately calibrated, while flagging that stress-testing scenarios involving higher rates remains a worthwhile exercise.
Asian equity markets closed on the back foot. Japan's Topix shed 1.53%, Australia's ASX 200 dropped 1.26% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng eased 0.57%.
As of 7:35 am, the French CAC 40 has gained 0.66%, the German DAX is up 0.54% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.11%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.39%, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.639% and DXY is at 99.33.
EURUSD traded negatively in a 1.1584-1.1613 range as anxiety over the US/Iran standoff kept oil market disruption fears alive, with the pressure compounded by firm to rising US Treasury yields. The single currency found little comfort in trade headlines after EU officials were seen capitulating to Washington's ultimatum: accept Trump's terms or face fresh tariffs on July 4. Eurozone CPI came in as expected at 3.0% y/y.
GBPUSD inched lower in a 1.3375-1.3407 range, pressured by broad dollar strength fed by the climb in US yields. The UK inflation print muddied the waters on the BoE outlook, with headline CPI coming in at 2.8% y/y against a 3.0% forecast, and core CPI printing 2.5% versus an expected 2.6% y/y.
USDJPY held to a tight 158.82-159.11 band, with the pair underpinned by Treasury yields and oil prices that remain elevated but stable. Finance Minister Katayama kept his usual verbal intervention playbook handy, reiterating readiness to act on FX moves.
AUDUSD drifted within a 0.7087-0.7187 range, caught between inflation jitters and rising US yields on one side and resilient commodity prices providing a floor on the other.
The US FOMC minutes are on tap today.
