- Trumps State of the Union speech a non event for markets.
- Tariff disarray sows confusion in global markets
- US dollar trading struggling to sustain gains.
USDCAD open: 1.3699, overnight range 1.3674-1.3706, close 1.3700, WTI 65.93, Gold 5175.04
The Canadian dollar is choppy in a narrow range and struggling to find direction. There are no top tier economic reports on tap and Bank of Canada policymakers are quiet. The price action is closely tracking broad US dollar sentiment and that sentiment is confused. Trump’s latest actions to counter the Supreme Court ruling that invalidated IEEPA tariffs opened up a new can of worms and that uncertainty has sidelined traders.
WTI oil prices eased from its recent peak and traded in a 65.46-66.57 range. The bottom was seen following the American Petroleum Institute report that US crude inventories surged by 11.0 million barrels last week.
Trump’s State of the Union address may have thrilled Republicans eager to stay in his good graces, but for most viewers it was a drawn-out spectacle. For one hour and forty-eight minutes, he recounted a version of economic triumph and personal success that exists largely in his own narrative. Markets paid little attention.
Asian equities tracked Wall Street higher. Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.17 percent, Japan’s Topix advanced 0.71 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.66 percent.
As of 7: 20 am, the UK FTSE 100 has gained 0.97%, the German DAX is 0.44% higher, and the French CAC 40 is up 0.36%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.27%, the US Dollar Index is 97.9 and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.054%.
EURUSD is confined to a 1.1771–1.1808 band and trading cautiously. Eurozone inflation matched expectations and was unchanged from December. German GDP rose 0.6 percent year over year in December, also in line with forecasts. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is the latest global leader to visit China in an effort to reinforce trade ties as a buffer against escalating US trade tensions.
GBPUSD has been erratic within a 1.3491–1.3534 range and is hovering near the session low in early New York dealings. Sterling softened after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated he will enter the March meeting assessing whether conditions justify a rate cut.
USDJPY is testing the upper end of its 155.35–156.82 range amid speculation that the Bank of Japan could delay further policy normalization. Additional support came after Prime Minister Takaichi’s government nominated two candidates to the BoJ board who favour monetary and fiscal stimulus to bolster growth.
AUDUSD spiked to 0.7117 following stronger-than-expected inflation data, with headline CPI at 3.8 percent year over year versus a 3.7 percent forecast and trimmed CPI rising to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent. The rally quickly faded, leaving the pair back toward the lower end of its 0.7057–0.7117 range.
There are no actionable US and Canadian economic releases today.
