- China cuts 1 and 5 year LPR
- Rising Trump victory odds underpin greenback
- US dollar opens with gains except against CHF.
USDCAD: open 1.3822, overnight range 1.3799-1.3827, close 1.3802, WTI $69.86, Gold, $2734.48
USDCAD is also being underpinned by expectations for a 50 bp rate cut and dovish Bank of Canada outlook in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday.
China’s PBoC cut the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10% and the 5 -year LPR from 3.85% to 3.6% in a move that was preannounced by PBoC Governor Pan Gongshen last Friday. The news served to improve risk sentiment in Asia which helped the Australian ASX 200 close with a gain of 0.74%. European traders were not as impressed and more concerned about US election risks. The French CAC 40 index dropped 0.96% and led the rest of the indices lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.14% from 4.10%.
WTI oil prices are off its session low of 68.47 and are trading at 70.34 following positive comments by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nassers who said he was bullish on Chinese crude demand. The gains were also due to profit taking after last week’s 7.0% slide.
EURUSD is trading within a tight range of 1.0844-1.0872. Expectations of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, contrasted with a potentially faster pace of rate cuts from the European Central Bank, are keeping gains capped. In addition, concerns about the possibility of another Trump presidency are creating downward pressure on prices.
GBPUSD was stable during Asian trading before dropping from 1.3058 to 1.3012. Traders are adopting a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow's speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey. Two weeks ago, Bailey signaled that policymakers might adopt a more aggressive stance on rate cuts if inflationary pressures continue to ease. Since then, GBPUSD has been on the defensive. Markets are hoping for a clearer outlook after last week’s UK inflation data, which showed CPI rising 1.7% year-on-year in September, down from 2.2% in August.
USDJPY saw a dip to 149.03 in Asia after closing at 149.53, before rallying back to 150.10 by the start of the New York session. There is no clear catalyst driving the move.
AUDUSD closed Friday at 0.6706 and has since moved lower, trading within a range of 0.6679-0.6724. Strong demand for the US dollar, driven by the prospect of Trump’s potential return to office, is overshadowing support stemming from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s likely decision to hold interest rates steady until 2025.
