- Canada expected to gain of 15,000 jobs.
- Russia announces oil production cut.
- US dollar opens mixed, and CAD outperforms vs Antipodean currencies.
USDCAD snapshot open 1.3437-41, overnight range 1.3416-1.3470, close 1.3455, WTI $79.57, Gold $1863.45
The Canadian dollar continued to spin its wheels in an uninspired overnight session.
Traders are looking forward to the release of the January Labour Force Survey (LFS) in the hopes that it will provide some short-term direction for the currency.That may just be wishful thinking.
Canada is expected to have added 15,000 jobs, compared to the 104,000 gained in December, and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 5.1% from 5.0%. If the results are close to expectations, they will be ignored. USDCAD did not get a lasting benefit from the surprisingly strong December report as the focus is squarely on the US interest rate outlook.
The Bank of Canada just recently announced it would stop raising interest rates to give previous hikes time to work through the economy and to allow policymakers time to review more economic data. Today’s LFS data won’t change the narrative.
Rising oil prices have added a layer of support to the Canadian dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed from $72.34 per barrel Monday to $80.30 per barrel overnight. The latest bump in prices occurred after Russia announced it would cut production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in March.
The production cut is a response to western sanctions and the G-7’s decision to cap Russian energy prices, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. He said, "Russia believes that the mechanism of price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products is an intervention in market relations and an extension of the destructive energy policies of the collective West."
A report from Ukraine claiming a Russian missile strike violated Romanian airspace raised concerns about rising tensions between NATO and Russia.
EURUSD is on the defensive, trading in a 1.0687–1.0752 range. The fear of higher US rates has more than offset hawkish comments by ECB officials.
Following the release of a slew of economic data, the GBPUSD traded in a 1.2081-1.2138 range.The UK avoided a technical recession when Q4 GDP came in at 0% q/q.
USDJPY traded erratically in a 129.81-131.88 band overnight due to the surprise nomination of dovish Kazuo Ueda for governor of the Bank of Japan.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.69313-0.6959 range. Prices got a bit of support after the RBA Statement of Monetary Policy raised its CPI forecast from 3.8% to 4.3%.
The US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected at 65 (previous 64.9).
