Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) extended decline is not unusual. The leading cryptocurrency has a history of steep decline, only to unexpectedly rebound to past highs. Bitcoin traded in the $68,000 range, compared to a $100,000 level not seen since last November.
Will BTC prices return to that level again? If so, when?
Kalshi data has predictions that BTC reclaims $100K before January 2027 at 40% odds. The odds are just over 5% in April 2026. The data spread suggests that people do not expect Bitcoin to recover any time soon.
Bitcoin’s prolonged downturn needs to shake out the weak hands. Pessimism is not yet at the peak, since BTC is trading in a narrow range. The price also depends on geopolitical events, currency, and metal prices such as gold and silver.
If the U.S. dollar weakness accelerates, BTC is not the preferred alternative. Investors prefer to hold a hard asset. Expect gold prices to strengthen before Bitcoin does.
In the stock market, Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) shares are not bouncing back convincingly. HOOD stock initially rose by over $10 a share after its last earnings report, only to drop again.
Investors prefer to hold Charles Schwab (SCHW), even though the stock fell from $108 to close at $94.03 last week. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is more appealing. Markets are willing to pay a premium for IBKR stock. Its market continued to expand globally in the last quarter. It does not rely on the crypto exchange for its growth.
