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Why Tesla's Q3 Delivery Report is Worrisome

In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla (TSLA) delivered 462,890 vehicles, below the consensus estimates. Deliveries of the Model 3/Y, however, exceeded expectations.

Tesla stock trades at a premium. The price-to-earnings multiple is 70 times, while the forward P/E is nearly 80 times. The latter figure will only rise if Tesla’s earnings growth falls and the stock does not correct.

Delivery growth and falling average selling prices for Tesla’s EVs are of secondary importance this week. Journalists will cover the company’s highly anticipated robotaxi event on Oct. 10. Titled “We, Rebot” at Warner Bros. Studios, the firm should introduce its Cybercab prototype.
Readers may speculate that the cab will have a front design similar to that of the Tesla 3. More important than the two-door sedan is the self-driving software.

Fans have high expectations for the robotaxi. The company did not deliver a full self-driving (“FSD”) to paying customers yet.

Risks

In China, Baidu (BIDU) is already testing self-driving taxis. That would deter Tesla from competing in its market. Furthermore, if Chinese companies offered such solutions in Europe and Asian countries, Tesla’s potential market would be limited.

Tesla needs the media to approve the Cybercab. The positive hype would create positive momentum for the adoption of the new technology.