- Global markets in park until after US election.
- China data and RBA boost AUD
- US dollar opens modestly lower after dull overnight session.
USDCAD: open 1.3885, overnight range 1.3880-1.3907 close 1.3902, WTI $71.75, Gold, $2738.53
The Canadian dollar pulled back from the edge of the abyss yesterday then traded quietly and in a narrow band overnight.
Global markets are in park until after the results of the US Presidential election and then things may get wild. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied according to numerous polls and the winner will determine the fate of the US dollar, at least in the short term,
A Trump in would ignite a global trade war. He is on record for saying that he “loves tariffs” and he his plans include, a baseline 10% tariff on all imports to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign goods. Then he takes aim at China with plans for an additional 60% to 100% tariff on imports, aiming to address trade imbalances and perceived unfair trade practices. Mexico is in the crosshairs as well. He proposed a 25% tariff on Mexico if it fails to prevent illegal migration into the U.S.
Additionally, Trump's previous criticisms of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and past trade tensions suggest that Canada could face challenges under his proposed trade policies. And that is a big negative for the Canadian dollar.
EURUSD moved within a narrow 1.0872-1.0899 range, with little incentive for movement as markets awaited the US election and no significant economic releases provided direction.
GBPUSD managed to recover all of yesterday’s losses, trading within a 1.2948-1.2987 range. Traders largely stayed on the sidelines, anticipating both the US election results and the upcoming Bank of England meeting. The BoE is widely expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
USDJPY traded between 152.05 and 152.55, underpinned by a stable US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.30%. Much of the market activity is in a holding pattern ahead of the US election and the FOMC meeting later in the week.
AUDUSD sits at the upper end of its 0.6579-0.6623 range, boosted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady at 4.35%, as anticipated. In addition, Caixin China Services PMI rose higher than expected which also supported AUDUSD.
Canada’s September trade data and the BoE Summary of Deliberations are on tap. The US releases ISM Services PMI but all of the data will be overshadowed by the election.
