On June 18, 2026, BHP Group (BHP) fell the most at a magnitude not seen in over a year. It is taking a hefty $2.3 billion charge related to its potash project in Canada.
BHP stock indicated a multiple top at around $93-$94, a bearish pattern. Shares closed at $87.87. Costs for the Canadian project will rise to $6.9 billion, up from $4.9 billion. BHP blamed mainly inflation and design development for the increased costs.
CBOE Global Markets (CBOE) slumped in recent weeks. Shares peaked last month at $371.18, only to fall to $300. By June 18, CBOE closed at $249.10. Markets are pricing in the risk of competition arising from Coinbase Global (COIN) and Kalshi’s recent launch of perpetual futures.
Speculators may buy futures contracts that have no set expiry by other means. That would hurt both CBOE and CME Group. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also continued its downtrend. Shares traded at the $140 support zone only to close at $133.88 last week.
To compete, CBOE and Charles Schwab (SCHW) are partnering to offer yes-or-no options. These are linked to the performance of the S&P 500 (IVV) index.
Beware of Prediction Market
Investors should stay away from the prediction market. Its risks are worse than gambling in a casino. At times, an insider who knows the outcome would make an outsized bet and win. Still, the valuations in CBOE, CME, ICE, and Nasdaq (NDAQ) are at a premium. That has more downside ahead.
