- Trump threatens Canada with 100% tariffs
- Gold soars to new record highs.
- US dollar sold aggressively against G-10 majors.
USDCAD open: 1.3680, overnight range 1.3674-1.3710, close 1.3700, WTI 61.22, Gold 5091.34
Large parts of the US and eastern Canada were hit by a major snowstorm, disrupting travel and commerce. Toronto Pearson recorded roughly 50 cm of snowfall, a daily record, and conditions across the region deteriorated rapidly as transport networks struggled to cope. That suggests FX activity will be muted today as traders shovel snow rather than go to work.
The Canadian dollar rallied despite renewed tariff threats from Trump, who floated a 100% levy on Canadian goods. The currency reaction suggests investors are increasingly discounting US policy rhetoric and questioning the credibility of the administration. A surge in gold prices reinforced the move, signaling a broader shift away from US dollar exposure.
WTI traded in a 60.62–61.71 range, supported by expectations of higher near-term demand due to extreme cold and snow across North America. A softer US dollar also provided an additional tailwind for crude prices.
Gold pushed to a fresh record overnight and is now up roughly 20% year to date. The rally reflects intensifying safe-haven demand amid elevated geopolitical tensions, including renewed rhetoric around Greenland and Iran, which has contributed to a growing crisis of confidence in US leadership.
Speculation around coordinated Fed and BoJ action intensified on Friday after reports that both the BoJ and the New York Fed contacted banks to “check rates.” That behavior is widely viewed as a precursor to intervention. Markets reacted swiftly, dumping USDJPY and triggering broad based US dollar selling across the majors.
Asian equities finished mixed, with Japan’s Topix sliding 2.13%, the Hang Seng flat, and Australia’s ASX 200 closed for a holiday.
As of &;40 am, the French CAC 40 has lost 0.17%, the German DAX is flat, the UK FTSE 100 index is up by 0.18% and S&P 500 futures are unchanged. The US Dollar Index is 97.18, and the 10 year Treasury yield at 4.214%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1830–1.1898 range after surging in Asia before easing back in Europe. Demand for alternatives to the US dollar intensified as intervention fears mounted. German IFO Business Climate was steady at 87.6, and EURUSD remains constructive above 1.1810 with scope to extend toward 1.1920.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3643–1.3683 range while consolidating recent gains. Broad US dollar weakness and expectations for easier US policy continue to support the pair, even as the Bank of England keeps the option of further tightening alive. A sustained move above 1.3670 would expose the September high near 1.3730.
USDJPY traded in a 159.26–153.31 range after an abrupt overnight collapse that drove volatility across G7 FX markets. Official warnings from Japanese policymakers, including Sanae Takaichi, reinforced fears that coordinated intervention is imminent. Further pressure could force USDJPY below 150.00, with downside risk extending toward 144.50.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6907–0.6933 range, consolidating earlier gains amid thin liquidity as Australian markets remained closed.
Today’s data includes US Durable Goods Orders and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
