Loonie Gains with Oil

WTI Crude reached a high yesterday of $49.63 U.S. per barrel from an open of $48.58; the move helped the Canadian dollar hit a weekly high against the U.S. dollar in a quiet week. The pair is rangebound between $1.33 and $1.34 Canadian.

This morning, Statistics Canada released the Raw Material Price Index, which was worse than the previous 1.7% and was cited at 1.2%.

Boston Fed President Rosengren said in a speech yesterday that the U.S. Federal Reserve should raise rates three more times this year. His comments were seen as the most hawkish of all the Federal Open Market Committee members speaking this week, as most hawks in the Fed see two hikes this year as a real possibility. The greenback did gain against the most of its trading peers barring commodity based currencies.

U.S. gross domestic product growth on the year had a reading of 2.1% as did quarterly figures, which were both better than expected. Personal Consumption Expenditure released better at 1.3% while forecasts and previous were at 1.2%. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims posted higher, causing the U.S. dollar to drop. The numbers posted at 258,000 and 2.052 million, respectively.

Experts expect a range today of $1.3273 to $1.3346 Canadian

German Consumer Price Index in March missed expectations and printed at 0.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y, which were both 0.2% lower than forecast. Policy talk is back on the table as a European Central Bank source stated that any changes in accommodative stance should be pushed back. The euro is in a freefall dropping almost three cents in the past three days, currently trading at $1.4278 Canadian.

Observers expect a range today of $1.4236 to $1.4306 Canadian

There are major event risks out of the U.K. today. The highly anticipated formal triggering of Article 50 yesterday was anti-climactic with minimal market movement. Consumer Confidence Survey is due this evening and is expecting to print -7. The pound sterling is currently trading at $1.6577 Canadian.

Traders expect a range today of $1.6535 to $1.6644 Canadian

The Australian dollar is slightly higher this morning as higher commodity prices buoyed the Aussie. Iron ore was the catalyst for the minor gains in the Australian unit. This week, the Aussie's price volatility has been subdued as markets await more information before taking a position on the currency. Tonight, there is the Private Sector Credit report which should not affect the market unless investors see drastically different numbers printed compared to economists’ forecasts.

Oil (WTI): $49.80 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,245.44 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $18.15 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $2.6797 U.S. per tonne

Dollar Index: 100.16


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