The Conference Board has thrown in the towel and says it no longer expects the U.S. economy to fall into a recession.
The business research group had, until now, maintained a long-standing call for the U.S. economy to enter a recession due to elevated interest rates that are used to lower inflation.
However, the U.S. economy has remained resilient and continues to defy the expectations and predictions of economists, prompting the Conference Board to abandon its recession call.
The Conference Board first announced in July 2022 that a recession was coming to America. It had repeated that forecast each month until now, even as the U.S. economy, labour market, and consumer spending have continued at above-trend levels.
However, in announcing that it no longer sees the U.S. economy entering a recession, the Conference Board said that it expects growth in the second and third quarters of this year to be near zero.
Persistently low numbers of new filings for unemployment benefits and measures of future credit availability, home building permits, and new orders of manufactured goods each contributed to the Conference Board changing its economic outlook.
The research body also noted that interest rates moving lower later this year should add additional fuel to the U.S. economy and spur more growth.
