- Canada loses 83,900 jobs in February.
- Oil prices remain elevated ahead of Fed meeting next week.
- The US dollar is bid across the board.
USDCAD open: 1.3670, overnight range 1.3621-1.3698, close 1.3642, WTI 95.82, Gold 5089.25
The Canadian dollar is back to where it was last Friday after a week dominated by the fallout from Trump’s war with Iran. Monday’s drop to 1.3526 was driven largely by demand for the Canadian dollar as its petrocurrency credentials came into play when WTI surged to 119.48/b during Asian trading. That support proved fleeting. Oil traders quickly reversed course and as WTI rebounded from Tuesday’s 76.83 low to 97.99/b overnight. The Canadian dollar drifted lower as markets began to focus on the inflationary implications of rising crude and the possibility that the Fed may need to tighten policy again.
Trump attempted to cool oil prices by granting a 30-day waiver allowing Russian crude that was already at sea to be purchased. In practice, the move simply allows buyers to pay Moscow more for its oil while doing little to ease global supply pressures.
Canada’s labour market report was ugly. The economy shed 83,900 jobs in February and the unemployment rate climbed to 6.7% from 6.5%. Losses were widespread, with services-producing industries cutting 56,000 positions while goods-producing sectors lost another 28,000. The numbers point to an economy losing momentum just as inflation pressures remain elevated. Can you say stagflation?
Today’s Canadian data will be overshadowed by Iran war developments, but the weak job numbers ensure limited upside for the Loonie.
Asian equity markets followed Wall Street lower. Japan’s Topix fell 0.57% overnight, Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.14% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.98%.
As of 8:40 am, European markets are mixed to flat. France’s CAC 40 is down 0.28%, and Germany’s DAX and the UK FTSE 100 are all either side of unchanged. S&P 500 futures have climbed 0.41%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.247%.
EURUSD traded lower overnight, falling 0.47% from its previous close of 1.1514 and moving within a 1.1433–1.1530 range. The euro remains under pressure from elevated oil prices and broad US dollar demand. Eurozone Industrial Production dropped 1.5% in January, sharply missing expectations for a 0.6% increase.
GBPUSD is down 0.53% from yesterday’s NY close and is hovering near the bottom of its 1.3253–1.3370 range. Broad US dollar demand had already weakened the pair before a series of disappointing UK data releases pushed it lower. The most notable was January GDP, which came in flat compared with expectations for 0.2% growth. The ONS reported that monthly GDP showed no growth following gains of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November 2025, with services flat, production down 0.1%, and construction rising 0.2% in January 2026.
USDJPY is trading near the middle of its 159.01–159.68 range and there are no signs of intervention from the Bank of Japan. Rising oil prices, expectations that the BoJ will leave policy unchanged, and the prospect of a hawkish Fed meeting are all contributing to upward pressure on the pair.
AUDUSD surrendered part of this week’s rally and traded within a 0.7016–0.7093 range. Downside risks remain limited by market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next week and deliver a hawkish outlook.
