- Safe-haven demand weighing on Treasury yields while boost gold prices.
- US nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise 180,000 in July (previous 206,000).
- US dollar opens mixed, consolidating yesterday’s gains.
USDCAD: open 1.3876, overnight range 1.3853-1.3888, close 1.3874, WTI $76.55, Gold, $2463.45
A weaker-than-expected US employment report, featuring fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate, will reinforce calls that the Fed has missed the boat—again.
The FOMC left US rates unchanged on Wednesday while broadly hinting at a possible rate cut in September. However, bond and equity traders were unimpressed. Global equity indexes were already facing tremendous selling pressure after disappointing earnings from major technology companies. Additionally, a series of employment reports, including weekly jobless claims and the JOLTS survey, combined with weak employment data in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, convinced traders that the US economy was headed for a hard landing. A recession is not out of the question, and traders blame the Fed’s abundance of caution.
Wall Street closed with steep losses, and Asian equity indexes followed suit. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 2.11%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 5.81%. The Nikkei was also impacted by the steep rise in the yen this week. European bourses are in losing territory, led by a 1.66% decline in the German DAX. S&P 500 futures are down 1.20%. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 3.93% today from 4.20% at the beginning of the week. Gold is the biggest beneficiary of the shift to risk aversion, with prices rising from around $2,360 on Monday to about $2,470 overnight.
Today’s US NFP report is expected to show a drop in new jobs (forecast 175,000 vs previous 206,000) and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%. Weaker-than-expected results will add fuel to the “Fed missed the boat” argument and put additional pressure on equities and Treasury yields. However, it's the dog days of summer, and the wild price action may just be noise, exaggerated by lower volumes.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0781-1.0825 range, as a lack of Eurozone data left traders content to await today’s US employment report.
GBPUSD dropped from 1.2864 pre-BoE decision and consolidated the losses in a 1.2708-1.2753 range overnight. The BoE cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps yesterday to 5.0%, but it was a split vote (5-4). Governor Bailey said that the Bank has to be “careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much.”
USDJPY traded in a 148.62-149.77 band, with prices weighed down by falling US Treasury yields and speculation that the BoJ will raise rates again in October.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6486-0.6526 range overnight, consolidating losses from yesterday’s risk-off mood.
