- Trade tensions being revisited
- BoJ likely intervened again.
- US dollar trading mixed but defensively.
USDCAD: 1.3659, overnight range 1.3657-1.3686, close 1.3674, WTI $79.69, Gold, $2475.24
The Canadian dollar rallied then retreated in the wake of the domestic inflation report yesterday. The Bank of Canada measure, CPI-medium, fell 0.2% to 2.6% from 2.8%, which is a move in the right direction and a prerequisite for another rate cut. The data complements the results in the Business Outlook Survey, and as a result, analysts are almost unanimous in predicting that the BoC will lower its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.50% at next Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting.
Governor Tiff Macklem’s rate cut decision was made easier following Fed President Jerome Powell’s comments to the New York Economics Club on Monday. Mr. Powell hinted (somewhat) vaguely that interest rates would be going down this year. His remarks raised the odds that the Fed would cut in September to over 91%.
Trade tensions are rising. President Biden and Donald Trump are both talking tough on trade. The Biden Administration is discussing imposing the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR), which would allow them to levy sanctions on any company, anywhere, if they are using even just a little bit of American technology in their products. Biden wants to target Dutch and Japanese manufacturers selling chips to China.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump wants to raise tariffs between 40-70% on all goods coming into the US, regardless of whether the source is an ally or an enemy.
EURUSD traded firmer, rising from 1.0896 to 1.0945. Traders were cautious ahead of tomorrow's ECB monetary policy meeting, even though it is expected to be a non-event. Eurozone HICP came in as expected at 2.5% y/y for June.
GBPUSD traded with a bid, rising from 1.2995 to 1.3045. The gains were triggered when UK inflation data suggested that the Bank of England may leave rates unchanged. CPI rose 2.0% y/y, and Core CPI rose 3.5%, and both were unchanged from May.
USDJPY plunged from 158.62 to 156.10 due to intervention by the Bank of Japan, although it has not been officially confirmed.
AUDUSD drifted inside a 0.6725-0.6755 band with price action dictated by general US dollar moves. Traders ignored Westpac’s Leading Index data, which was unchanged at 0.
Today’s US data includes Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Building Permits, and Housing Starts.
