- BoC monetary policy and quarterly MPR on Wednesday.
- Wednesday’s US CPI data key for rate outlook.
- US dollar opens with minor bid.
USDCAD: open 1.3598, overnight range 1.3584-1.3617, close 1.3593, WTI $86.05, Gold, $2337.44
The Canadian dollar suffered a total eclipse of its economic data on Friday, when US nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000, 50% higher than the consensus forecast. The results support the Fed’s argument that there is no need to rush to cut rates.
The Canadian employment report was weaker than expected. Canada lost 2,500 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 5.8%. The details were better than what the headline suggested as the jobs losses were in the “self-employed” category.
Canadian dollar traders have already shifted their focus to the upcoming Bank of Canada policy meeting. Many analysts expect the BoC to keep the door open to a June rate cut, partly because Canadians are highly indebted, and many mortgages are up for renewal. However, the Federal government’s announcements of massive spending initiatives this year may have prompted a BoC rate cut. BoC officials will want to avoid over stimulating the economy by cutting rates on top of fiscal stimulus.
West Texas Intermediate is trading firmly in a 84.69-86.69 range supported by elevated Middle East tensions and expectations of rising global demand. The WTI gains are acting as a drag on USDCAD gains.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is winding up her China trip and left with a note of caution for Beijing. She said, “Any banks that facilitate significant transactions that channel military or dual-use goods to Russia’s defense industrial base expose themselves to the risk of US sanctions.”
EURUSD traded in a 1.0821-1.0844 range. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s ECB meeting and ignored German February Industrial Production data (actual 2.1% forecast 0.3%).
GBPUSD shuffled aimlessly in a 1.2615-1.2640 band. The focus is on Wednesday's US CPI data, as it is expected to rise. If so, it will dampen hopes for Fed rate cuts before H2, thereby limiting GBPUSD gains.
USDJPY had a bit of a bid and traded in a 151.57-151.93 due to the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.45%.
AUDUSD shrugged off Friday's weakness and traded sideways in a 0.6560-0.6591 range. Traders are looking ahead to Tuesday's Consumer Sentiment and Business Confidence reports.
There are no top tier US or Canadian economic reports today.
