- FX liquidity low due to holidays.
- Canada GDP expect at 0.4% in January.
- US dollar trades with minor bid.
USDCAD: open 1.3611-15, overnight range 1.3566-1.3614, close 1.3567, WTI $81.94, Gold, $2197.56
The Canadian dollar came under pressure overnight due to a mix of hawkish Fed comments, caution ahead of today’s US data, and less than expected US dollar sales for month-end portfolio rebalancing.
USDCAD probed resistance in the 1.3615-20 area in early NY trading but the bids evaporated, and it dropped to 1.3590, which coincided with a broad-based but minor retreat in the US dollar against the majors in NY.
WTI oil prices have inched higher, rising from $81.53/b to $82.42 and are up over $14 from the beginning of the year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comment that “there is no rush to cut rates” had an outsized impact on markets and led to the US dollar gains overnight. His remarks were nothing new. The Summary of Projections from last week’s FOMC meeting said as much. Furthermore, Mr. Waller talks too much. His interest rate outlook seems to change with his socks and should be discounted. In addition, many markets were closed for the start of a four-day Easter weekend.
Traders expected a rash of US dollar selling as portfolio managers rebalanced their portfolios after the S&P rose over 3.0% in March. So far, that hasn’t happened but lingering risks of selling pressure will limit the Canadian dollar downside.
Canada’s economy is expected to have grown by 0.4% in January, a big improvement on December's 0% result. However, the details may show that the strength is just temporary.
There is a lot of US data on tap including: GDP, weekly jobless claims, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Pending Home Sales.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0775-1.0828 range and prices are near the low in early NY trading. Weaker than expected German Retail Sales (actual -1.9% m/m vs forecast 0.3%) didn’t help sentiment.
GBPUSD is just above the middle of its 1.2586-1.2641 range. Bank of England policymakers Catherine Mann and Johnathan Haskel also warned against rushing to cut interest rates.
USDJPY was steady in a 151.25-151.55 range with prices supported by widening US and Japan interest rate differentials.
AUDUSD is trading poorly in a 0.6485-0.6541 range due to disappointing retail sales data and broad US dollar strength.
