USDCAD: open 1.3537-40, overnight range 1.3529-1.3552, close 1.3543, WTI $76.03, Gold, $1995.98
The Canadian dollar was largely ignored overnight and stayed in a narrow range ahead of barrage of US economic data today.
Canadian dollar direction continues to be dictated by broad US dollar moves and those moves are determined by any piece of data that could influence the FOMC’s interest rate outlook. Tuesday’s inflation report is a prime example. It was hotter than expected and traders scrambled to buy greenbacks.
Wall Street is a tad less concerned about the timing of Fed easing with traders content in the knowledge that US rates are headed lower sometime this year. That believe powered the S&P 500 index back above 5000 yesterday, for a gain of 0.96%. SP500 futures are also trading higher and pointing to a positive open today.
The US unloads a ton of economic data today and chief among the reports is the January Retail Sales data which is expected to show a dip of 0.1% m/m. A stronger than expected result will boost the greenback as it means rate cuts will be delayed.
EURUSD inched higher in a 1.0724-1.0741 range as it slowly retraces its post-US CPI losses. The European Commission’s latest economic growth forecasts predict that inflation will fall faster but the economy will grow more slowly.
GBPUSD consolidated yesterday’s losses in a 1.2542-1.25574 range. Sentiment is negative after Q4 GDP fell 0.2% (forecast 0.1%), putting the economy into a technical recession. Economists suggest not reading too much into the news as there is plenty of volatility within the data.
USDJPY fell from 150.60 to 149.93 and is sitting at 150.05 in early NY trading. The selling pressure occurred in tandem with the dip in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.223% from 4.261% at yesterday’s close. Traders were also nervous about potential BoJ intervention. However, downside may be limited due to weak Q4 GDP which fell 0.4% q/q in Q4 and puts Japan in a technical recession.
AUDUSD shrugged off the January employment report and drifted higher in a narrow 0.6478-0.6502 range. Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (forecast 4.0%, previously 3.9%) while adding just 11,100 jobs.
Canada Housing starts and Manufacturing Sales data are released this morning but as usual, will be overshadowed by the US numbers.
