- Slumping oil prices weigh on Canadian dollar.
- Market activity subdued because of US holiday.
- US dollar firms on risk aversion.
USDCAD: open 1.3415-19, overnight range 1.3382-1.3426, close 1.3410, WTI $72.24, Gold, $2053.43.
The Canadian dollar is sliding lower in quiet trading due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in America. Brutally cold weather across most of Canada has many domestic market participants more concerned about staying warm than they are with the Canadian dollar today.
The Bank of Canada releases its quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS), and the forecasts for inflation will be closely scrutinized. Traders are expecting that the first BoC rate cut will occur at the March 6 monetary policy meeting. That view may get pushed back if inflation expectations suggest that prices will continue to rise well above the BoC CPI target of 1-3%. More inflation information will be available tomorrow when the December CPI data is released.
West Texas oil price shot higher on Friday on reports that the US and UK warships blasted Houthi targets in Yemen. The rally peaked at $74.90/barrel, then prices slid steadily overnight to $71.75, where it is this morning. The negative pressure is because traders are more concerned about excess supply and slowing demand from China than they are with supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Asian equity markets closed with a mixed tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 0.91% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.17%. Australia’s ASX 200 finished flat on the day. European bourses are in negative territory, led by a 0.41% drop in the French CAC 40 index.
The UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.26%.
Gold (XAUUSD) gained 0.20% to $2,055.90, while the US 10-year Treasury yield sits at 3.94%.
EURUSD is see-sawing in a 1.0934-1.0968 band. Eurozone industrial production fell 0.3% as expected and much better than the 0.7% decline in October. The results were not enough
to inspire activity ahead of Tuesday's Eurozone and German ZEW Surveys.
GBPUSD is trading with a bearish bias in a 1.2713-1.2716 range overnight. GBPUSD volatility may get a boost this week due to tomorrow's UK employment data and CPI and PPI data on Wednesday.
USDJPY is at the top of its 144.87-145.91 range due to broad US dollar strength and reduced risks for tighter Japanese monetary policy.
AUDUSD is at its session low and traded in a 0.6652-0.6705 range. The selling pressure stems from risk aversion after a more pro-China candidate did not win the Taiwan election and from sentiment that the RBA has finished raising rates.
Canadian Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales data is due
