- BoC Governor Macklem provides year end update today.
- Markets pricing 150 bps of Fed easing in 2024.
- US dollar opens mixed from close-but higher from Thursday open.
USDCAD: open 1.3378-82, overnight range 1.3372-1.3415, close 1.3409, WTI $72.02, Gold, $2042.49.
The Canadian dollar is adding to its gains from yesterday ahead of a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. The Governor is speaking in Toronto, and the text of his remarks will be available on the Bank of Canada website at 12:25 pm ET. He is not likely to say anything that will have much effect on the Canadian dollar because it is the US interest rate outlook that is moving markets.
Mr. Macklem will likely downplay rate cut speculation by pointing to core inflation numbers that are still elevated. His peers at the Bank of England and the European Central Bank also tried to temper rate cut speculation. It didn’t work for them, and it won’t work for Mr. Macklem.
The FOMC Summary of Projections showed policymakers expected US interest rates to drop by 75 bps in 2024. Traders are looking for 150 bps in cuts by next December, and that view drove the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 3.885% yesterday. They are currently sitting at 3.90% in New York.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0947-1.1004 range overnight, with gains limited in part by a forecast from UBS suggesting the ECB will cut interest rates in April. Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI data were also below forecasts, another negative for the currency pair.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2740-1.2790 range. Traders continue to ignore somewhat hawkish comments by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. He said, 'So my view at the moment is, it’s really too early to start speculating about cutting interest rates. We’ve got to see more progress.' That didn’t stop the market from pricing in a spring rate cut.
USDJPY is defensive after trading in a 141.47-142.47 range due to concerns the BoJ may end its ultra-low interest rate policy this month and because of falling US rates.
AUDUSD bounced in a 0.6694-0.6726 band. Judo Bank PMI data was a wash. Services PMI rose while Manufacturing PMI dipped.
Today's US data is second tier but includes Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and S&P Global PMI data. US traders prefer ISM PMI numbers.
