- US Nonfarm payrolls expected around 150-170k.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI weaker than expected.
- USD opens narrowly mixed ahead of key US data.
USDCAD: open: 1.3500-04, overnight range: 1.3490-1.3522, close 1.3507, WTI $84.52, Gold $1944.40
The Canadian dollar opened as the best-performing G-10 currency overnight but finished August with a loss of 1.95%.
USDCAD climbed steadily throughout August, rising from 1.3195 on August 1 to 1.3640 on August 25, due to market expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates higher and keep them there for longer than expected. That sentiment changed last week after a series of soft employment indicators suggested the Fed does not need to raise rates any higher.
Traders are looking for confirmation of that view from today’s US nonfarm payrolls number. NFP is expected to rise by 170,000 compared to last month's 187,000 increase, while the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.5%.
Canadian dollar traders have an additional economic report to worry about. Q2 GDP is expected to have dropped to 1.2% q/q compared to 3.1% in Q1. The preliminary estimate for July is -0.2% compared to a 0.3% increase in June. Today’s data is key in determining the outlook for interest rates at next week's Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.
The Canadian dollar got an added lift from sharply higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied from $78.38/b on August 23 to $84.81/b overnight. WTI is supported by Saudi Arabian and Russian production cuts and broad US dollar weakness.
EURUSD consolidated yesterday’s losses in a 1.0828-1.0869 range. Weaker than expected Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (actual 43.5 vs. forecast 43.7 and July 43.7) and position adjustment ahead of today's NFP limited gains.
GBPUSD shuffled in a 1.2636-1.2691 range ahead of today's US employment report. Soft UK data weighed on prices. Manufacturing PMI was a tad higher than expected at 43 (forecast 42.5) but still very weak, while UK House prices fell 5.3% y/y.
USDJPY is in the middle of its 145.24-145.71 range and trading with a negative bias due to Chinese stimulus activity and soft US Treasury yields. Traders ignored news that Capital Spending fell from 11% in Q1 to 4.5% in Q2 (forecast 5.4%) and unchanged Manufacturing PMI data.
AUDUSD popped to 0.6501 after China cut its foreign reserve requirements for banks and the better-than-expected Caixin China Manufacturing PMI result. Prices retreated to 0.6446 before climbing to 0.6475 ahead of today's US employment data.
US ISM August Manufacturing PMI is expected at 47 (previous 46.4).
