Consumer confidence in Canada has fallen to its lowest level in 14-months as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and surging inflation rattle the country’s economy, according to pollster Nanos Research.
The Canadian Confidence Index, a measure of sentiment based on weekly polling, fell to 56.3 last week, its lowest level since January 2021. The gauge is down more than three points since the end of February.
For the first time since 2020, the share of Canadians who believe the economy will weaken over the next six months surpassed 50%.
The latest results suggest the combination of higher inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine is starting to weigh on consumers.
Each week, Nanos Research surveys 250 Canadians for their views on personal finances, job security and their outlook for both the economy and real estate prices. The confidence index represents a rolling four-week average of about 1,000 responses.
Until last month, Canadian household consumer confidence numbers held up relatively well compared with other countries, buoyed by a booming housing market and expanding economy. But the surge in oil prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the beginning of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are raising concerns.
The survey data show pessimists on the economic outlook outnumber optimists by more than two-to-one, with 51% of respondents expecting the economy to weaken. That’s up 10 percentage points since February of this year.
About 39% of respondents said their finances have worsened over the past year, which is also the highest since 2020, when sentiment figures hit record lows as the pandemic hit.
Sentiment around real estate remains elevated, with 63% of Canadians expecting housing prices to continue rising.
