After Petronas et al rolled a frag grenade under the massive LNG Project in 2017 due to low prices, all is forgiven and earlier this month the group decided that a lot of LNG will flow out of Kitimat BC by the middle of the 2020’s. As massive as this project is, it is likely only the first in a dozen megaprojects well into mid-century.
The main players; Royal Dutch Shell, Mitsubishi Corp., the Malaysian-owned Petronas, PetroChina Co. and Korean Gas Corp, have agreed to the $40-billion joint venture. A 670-kilometer pipeline delivering natural gas from the northeast corner of the province further includes a gas liquefaction plant in Kitimat on B.C.’s coast. Rather than drone on, here is an excellent Visual Capitalist piece that is pretty skookum.
TransCanada will build the 420-mile transport pipeline from Dawson Creek BC to Kitimat BC at the cost of $6.2 billion. First gas should flow pre 2025 just as China's gas needs enter the multi-decade growth.
According to our 2H Global LNG Outlook, imports of LNG will set a new record this year on the back of a robust 8.5% growth - demand will reach 308MMtpa this year, up from 284MMtpa in 2017…. By 2030, 450MMtpa of LNG is needed, driven by Asia, which accounts for 86% of total growth. See the BNEF video on the Gas Markets Global: The Rise of LNG
Huge Opportunity? Sure. But Think Small
Many opportunities abound in the LNG sector. Many companies don’t even touch LNG: But without these specialized service companies, LNG ceases even to be viable.
Step One. Demand
YoY, China gas import growth rose 52% to mid-2018. As more Asian demand at 1.6% per year to 2022 is moderate, demand starts ramping up nicely around that year. Until then, the play is likely construction and infrastructure companies. There will plenty of time to look at production estimates for post-2022, but if facilities, pipelines aren’t built, it could get pretty lonely. And unprofitable.
If You Build It
If a fraction of the dozen projects are built—Kitimat is the only one approved so far; the best leverage is in the smaller, specialized companies. They not only survived the ugliness that was the business climate in Western Canada but are stronger and the key to the economy of the west of Canada.
Step Two. Introducing Three Small but Key LNG Players (In no particular order)
ENTREC CORP ENT: CA
Entrec has massive trucks and hauling capacity. Likely all one needs to know. Business is simple but critical.
With Management and Board holding north of 50% of the shares, ENT's number of offices throughout critical areas –including Kitimat—is enticing. Add in the deep discount of 66% of NAV (C$0.58), and there are several potentialities for investors. $20 million market cap. Here’s the Investor Deck.
"Given that we have a strong presence in the LNG area, including Kitimat, we are maximizing our efforts to win business," said Jason Vandenberg, CFO, and IR for ENTREC." We will benefit from both the construction of the LNG Facility and ancillary infrastructure as well as from increased natural gas exploration and production in NE BC and NW Alberta, where we are also well positioned."
MACRO INDUSTRIES MCR.CA
Macro's core business is providing pipeline and facilities construction and maintenance services to major companies in the oil and gas industry within Canada.
At a market cap near C$85 million, Macro is the big of the smalls. It is hip deep in the area.
The Company was recently awarded a contract for the construction of the Groundbirch Compressor Station; a two-unit greenfield compressor station located near Dawson Creek, B.C. that is part of the NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (“NGTL”) North Montney Mainline Project. NGTL is a wholly owned subsidiary of TransCanada Pipelines Limited.
Services include civil work, fabrication, and installation of piping and structural steel, coating, testing and commissioning as well as the installation of compression, pumping and process equipment.
The lump-sum contract value is more than $37.0 million. The shares showed the most 52-week volatility of three. And the most significant gains, depending on your trades of course.
Enterprise Group CA: E
Between December 2017 and May 2018, Enterprise’s share price accomplished a stand-up double. From C$.30 to C$0.63. The Company made it a priority to keep shareholders informed, reducing debt to $0 and focusing the business into the go-to for mobile power, dryers, full camp builds, etc.
E continues to successfully execute its strong corporate mandate to be the largest specialized equipment rental and services organization, providing critical site infrastructure and services in Western Canada and beyond.
"Several factors led us to conclude that approval this LNG project would resolve right about now," stated Des O'Kell SVP of Enterprise. " Clues abounded as the related activity from Kitimat to Fort St. John; such as negotiations with First Nations, equipment plans and increased office leasing. The reality is that early exposure to this development trend is key; with a focused eye on commodity prices. Viewing this project as an initial LNG ‘tap' to Asia heralds massive expansion potential; growing and enhancing Western Canada's energy exports for decades."
Step Three: Leverage
Investors are more than welcome to buy the significant plays, but as with most things, the suppliers to the project(s) will likely be the quarterly canary in the coal mine, developmentally and future growth. And as each grows their reps, they will probably get the first call for new projects.
Check this graph of 6 months of TRP: CA then;
- Do the math
- Check the smaller companies for the best leverage
- Ascertain your level of risk
- Consider $CA (dollar cost averaging)
- Establish a hold time horizon; likely 2022-2025
- Or be a trader.
This period will likely be volatile for the above companies (TRP as well)and not for the faint of heart. But probably worth a bit of your portfolio allocation. Why? Because there is only one truism in investing:
Fortune Favors the Bold and merde happens
Faites Vos Jeux, mes amis.
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