The United States has been playing a vital role as the world’s “swing supplier” of key energy commodities amid the global shortage triggered by the war in Iran, with surging exports helping to cut the energy deficit. According to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler via Reuters, shipments of crude oil, gasoline, LNG, diesel, jet fuel, and ethane surged to 153 million tons from January to April, good for a 20% Y/Y increase compared to last year’s corresponding period. Combined exports of oil and refined products hit 14.2 million barrels per day in early 2026, a 33% increase from 2025. Exports of gasoline jumped 27%, diesel 23%, and LNG 26% compared to the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, jet fuel saw a massive 82% Y/Y surge as refiners fulfilled panic orders from international buyers.
The rise in ~25 million tons of U.S. oil, fuels, and LNG exports partly offset the ~82- million-ton decline in exports from the Middle East since the war began in late February, helping to keep the prices of these commodities somewhat in check. However, the huge outflows have exacerbated the energy supply tightness in the United States, with gas prices spiking across all 50 states.
On Tuesday, GasBuddy reported that data compiled from more than 150,000 gas stations across the country revealed that the national average price of gasoline stood at $4.54 per gallon. And, unlike previous times, motorists from all 50 states are now feeling pain at the pump, “Gasoline prices rose in every state over the last week, with some of the most significant and fastest increases concentrated in the Great Lakes, where states like Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois saw sharp spikes, while Wisconsin experienced more modest gains,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
Gas prices are now hovering around mid-2022 levels when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis. Not surprisingly, the oil price spike is giving U.S. lawmakers the jitters, with some introducing proposals to restrict or halt gasoline exports. Last week, U.S. House Representative Ro Khanna reintroduced the "Gasoline Export Ban Act of 2026" aiming to prohibit gasoline exports. According to the proposal, the ban will be activated if the national average gasoline price exceeds $3.12 per gallon for seven consecutive days. If successful, the law will prevent oil companies from prioritizing exports, thereby increasing domestic supply and lowering prices for U.S. consumers during price spikes.
However, Khanna’s proposal is facing significant pushback, with opponents arguing that such restrictions could disrupt global markets, harm long-term U.S. business relationships, and potentially damage the domestic refining sector by causing an imbalance in supply.
A ban would create a glut of light sweet crude in the US, while creating a shortage of heavy, complex crude that U.S. refineries are optimized to process. This structural mismatch would necessitate reducing refinery throughput and could result in the closure of up to 1.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity, paradoxically increasing domestic fuel prices for many consumers. Further, restricting energy exports would make the U.S. appear to be an unreliable supplier to key allies in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, who rely heavily on American crude and refined products.
Despite political pressure, the Trump administration has previously indicated that an energy export ban is not currently in the cards, with officials focusing on keeping U.S. energy flowing to global markets while managing domestic impacts. However, it’s going to be interesting to see how the administration reacts if gas prices continue creeping towards the dreaded $6.00 per gallon or even $7.00 per gallon, as some experts have warned, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Hopefully, the situation will not get that dire, with a recent report that the United States and Iran are nearing an agreement on a one-page, 14-point memorandum aimed at ending the ongoing war in the Gulf.
According to the report, negotiations, mediated primarily by Pakistan, have reached their most optimistic stage since the conflict began, with a formal response from Tehran expected within 48 hours. The memo would formally declare an end to the war, triggering a 30-day period for more detailed talks on permanent security and economic arrangements. The parties would have to agree to a nuclear moratorium, with Iran committing to a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment. The U.S. would then gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, while restrictions on shipping and the U.S. naval blockade would be phased out to restore global oil flows.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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