Since November 2025, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slipped from over $120,000 to touch sub-$59,999 last week. Will this steep drop end, like it always did in past years?
Bitcoin has a 50/50 chance of trading below $50,000 by the end of this year. Predictions markets looked at the recent 6% daily drops and the ~ 14% drop in the last month to set that probability.
The leading cryptocurrency fell due to no major news. Instead, BTC faced selling pressure as other assets increased in attractiveness. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy added 172,000 jobs. That increased the odds of rates staying the same for 2026. Moreover, a bias for a 25 bps rate hike within six months strengthened the US dollar.
Instead of holding Bitcoin on opaque platforms, investors could hold long-term treasury bill ETFS (TLT) (IEF), which pay between 3.9% and 4.6%.
Investors are avoiding cryptocurrency platform stocks, too. Coinbase Global (COIN) attracted an 11.9% short float. Robinhood (HOOD) shares are still trending higher. SoFi (SOFI), a digital bank, offers Bitcoin. Bears are convinced SOFI stock has downside ahead: the short float is 13.7%.
SoFi’s peers include Nu Holdings (NU) and PayPal Holdings (PYPL). Neither company is appealing to conservative investors at this time.
