The House voted 215-208 on Wednesday to direct President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the Iran conflict, with four Republicans crossing the aisle in the most significant congressional pushback on Operation Epic Fury since the war began Feb. 28.
The resolution, introduced by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), invokes the 1973 War Powers Act and directs Trump to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities with Iran unless Congress formally declares war or authorizes the use of military force. Under the Act, Trump now has 30 days to comply, unless he challenges it, which the White House has already signaled it will.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), and Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) voted with Democrats. Fitzpatrick was direct about why: "We have to follow the law. We're past the 60 days, so you have two choices. You either follow the law or you change the law. You can't violate the law. That's not an option."
The vote came after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) moved to block it two weeks ago, sending members home early for recess when it appeared the measure had enough support to pass. If anything, that delay hardened opposition. Johnson's office didn't immediately respond to requests for comment on next steps, though the speaker said publicly this week that Trump is "laser-focused" on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for commerce.
A Three-Month War With No Clear Endgame
The conflict has now stretched past 95 days, and the economic toll has become a central argument for critics of both parties. Iran has largely kept the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, disrupted for the duration of the war. U.S. gas prices are now averaging close to $5 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA data, a pressure point Democrats have hammered and one that's increasingly resonating with Republican constituents.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned earlier this month that if the strait stays blocked beyond mid-June, oil market normalization could stretch into 2027. At its peak this spring, Macquarie Group modeled oil reaching $200 a barrel if the conflict extended into Q2 with no resolution.
The administration's position is that the conflict is effectively over. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the House Foreign Affairs Committee hours before the vote that "Epic Fury is over" and that Washington had achieved its objectives, specifically the degradation of Iran's ability to project large-scale missile and drone power across the region. "We're no longer conducting sustained strikes inside of Iran to degrade their military," Rubio said.
Iran's state media has offered a different account. Fars News Agency reported earlier this week that the two sides had stopped exchanging messages several days ago, a claim both Trump and Rubio disputed publicly on Tuesday.
The Nuclear Deal That Isn't Done
In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 2, Rubio laid out the administration's position on what a deal would require: Iran must reopen the strait, stop charging tolls on commercial shipping, help remove mines and commit to not firing on vessels. That gets the U.S. to lift its maritime blockade.
Sanctions relief is a separate, harder ask. Rubio was unambiguous: "They are not going to get any sanctions relief of any kind unless they get rid of enrichment and get rid of the highly enriched uranium." He described the nuclear talks as a two-phase process, with the second phase involving technical negotiations on "severe and long-term limitations and/or cancellation of enrichment", talks he said could take 30 to 90 days of expert-level engagement just to work out the mechanics.
There has been some movement. Rubio acknowledged that compared to "a few months ago," when Iran refused to discuss enrichment at all, the topic is now on the table in documents exchanged between the two sides. But "we still don't have final sign-off from their system," he said as of Tuesday morning.
What Happens Next
The resolution now heads to the Senate, where a separate war powers measure has already advanced. Even if both chambers pass legislation, Trump would almost certainly veto it or contest its constitutionality, the White House has maintained since early May that a ceasefire reached April 7 already "terminated" the hostilities that triggered the War Powers Act's 60-day clock, making congressional intervention moot.
Congressional legal observers disagree. CNN reported Wednesday that House watchdogs believe the law's clock is still running from Feb. 28 and that the administration never sought congressional authorization for Operation Epic Fury, a position that will almost certainly end up in court if the standoff between the branches continues.
For now, the immediate story is political. Four Republicans voted against their own party's leadership on a war that started with broad support and has since become a financial and diplomatic liability. Whether that number grows in the Senate, and whether it gets anywhere close to a veto-proof majority, is the question that matters.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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