Risks to oil prices are firmly skewed higher amid plunging global oil inventories in the worst supply disruption in history, according to Barclays.
The investment bank on Friday kept its $100 per barrel Brent forecast for 2026, but warned that the risks are skewed to the upside as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been draining U.S. and global inventories to multi-year lows.
“Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note carried by Reuters.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to fully open to tanker traffic today, the starting point for inventories – in the most optimistic scenario – would be about 20 million barrels below the tightest level they have been recently, according to Barclays.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs warned that global oil inventories are falling at an accelerated rate, as April draws from inventories had run at double the rate for March.
Since the start of May, global draws from inventories have been running at 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd), which is the highest ever, the investment bank’s analysts said.
“Physical markets continue to tighten, as estimated oil exports through the strait remain at a very low 5% of normal,” they said.
Earlier this month, Goldman said that global oil inventories were crashing and approaching an eight-year low, with the rate of depletion so fast that it exposes the market to further shocks.
Meanwhile, asset managers and energy market experts said in a Bloomberg Intelligence survey that oil prices are set to average between $81 and $100 per barrel over the next 12 months as demand destruction would help balance a market that continues to price in a lasting war risk premium.
Early on Friday, oil prices were rising by about 2% in Asian trade, with Brent Crude up 2.3% at $105 and WTI Crude rising 1.7% to $98 per barrel.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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