According to a new report from Norway's DNV, emissions from the energy sector are set to peak this year. The peak would be driven by the increased deployment of solar generation and battery storage.
The report claims emissions may eventually halve by 2050, as non-hydrocarbon sources of energy come to account for some 50% of the global energy mix. DNV added that this would still be insufficient to hit the Paris Agreement targets of arresting the global average temperature increase to between 1.5 C and 2 C from pre-industrial times.
According to the report, falling costs of solar energy and battery storage are squeezing coal and oil demand, a development that is critical in reducing emissions, which hit a record high in 2023. It bears noting that this is the same year when solar installations rose by a massive 80%, failing to stem the rise in emissions.
Wind power is also seen as crucial for the decline in emissions, with DNV seeing wind capacity rising to account for 28% of electricity generation by 2050. Offshore wind specifically is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 12%. That’s despite current challenges in the growth of this industry in the form of higher costs that are leading to delays in planned projects.
Elsewhere in transition technology, “EV sales increased 50% last year and are on track towards a 50% global passenger EV sales share in 2031,” DNV also reported, even though the landscape in electric vehicles is quite different from last year’s, with sales slumping in the European market and growth slowing down in North America.
“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” Remi Eriksen, DNV's group president and chief executive, as quoted by Reuters.
“Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition,” Eriksen added.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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