Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal.
The popular prediction markets that let people wager on the outcome of future events places the odds that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s tariffs at about 25%.
The highest court in America is expected to issue its ruling on the tariffs Jan. 9 after hearing oral arguments for and against the import duties.
The stakes are high. If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, the U.S. government will be required to refund $150 billion U.S. in tariff revenue that it has collected over the past year.
Several companies, such as Home Depot (HD) and Costco Wholesale (COST), have already filed legal documents seeking tariff refunds in anticipation that the duties will be struck down.
However, some analysts are warning that a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs might not immediately clarify refund procedures or guarantee an end to the import duties.
Analysts seem to agree that the Trump administration will fight the process and drag its heels on providing any refunds to U.S. companies.
More than 1,000 companies are expected to have to file individual legal claims in court seeking tariff refunds from the U.S. government.
Legal experts say the situation has the potential to overwhelm the courts and that the refund fights will likely take years to resolve.
For its part, the Trump administration has said that it has other avenues to keep tariffs in place even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules the levies are illegal. What those avenues are is not clear.
COST stock has risen 6% so far this year to trade at $915.31 U.S. per share.
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