U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to mediate a long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter’s construction of a giant dam on the Nile. According to the experts, Trump attempted to broker a deal over the dam during his first term, but saw his efforts rebuffed by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who felt he was siding with Egypt--a strong U.S. ally. Trump has previously claimed that the dam "substantially" lowers water volumes flowing into the Nile, echoing Egypt’s sentiments.
Last year, Ahmed inaugurated the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), marking the completion of the dam 14 years after launch. With a capacity of 5,150 MW, GERD is Africa’s largest hydropower plant, with a capacity to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. Extending for 172 kilometers and covering an area of 1,874 square kilometers, GERD is built in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, located approximately 14–30 km (9–19 miles) upstream from the Sudanese border in the Benishangul-Gumuz region. The giant dam has helped unite a nation long polarised along ethnic lines and frequently mired in conflict.
"They do not see it as a pile of concrete in the middle of a river, but as a monument of their achievement because Ethiopians, both at home and in the diaspora, funded the dam's construction. There were waves and waves of appeals for contributions when construction started in 2011,’’ Moses Chrispus Okello, analyst at Institute for Security Studies, told BBC.
"The government also issued bonds that were bought by companies and workers. So, the sense that all Ethiopians own the dam has grown exponentially, and its inauguration is a source of great pride for the nation," he added.
Unfortunately, not everybody is celebrating yet another key milestone by Africa’s fast-growing energy sector, with Nigeria's $20 billion Dangote refinery officially opened in 2023, marking yet another megaproject on the continent in recent years.
Egypt, Ethiopia’s neighbor to the north, views GERD as an existential threat due to its heavy reliance on the Nile. Water flows by Africa’s longest river are primarily driven by Ethiopia’s Blue Nile (approx. 65% of Nile volumes), with significant contributions again from Ethiopia's Atbara River (14%), with the White Nile contributing the rest.
Together, the Ethiopian highlands, through the Blue Nile and Atbara, contribute up to 85% of the total water reaching Egypt, particularly during the summer monsoon season. Unfortunately, the Nile’s average discharge is relatively low at ~3,075 cubic meters per second due to significant evaporation through the arid Sahara desert.
This makes every drop invaluable for the Egyptians. With a population of 118 million people and growing water scarcity (already below the UN poverty threshold), Egypt fears that reduced Nile flows threaten its entire agricultural sector and domestic water supply. Cairo has accused Addis Ababa of taking unilateral, illegal actions by building the dam without laying out binding agreements on water and drought management.
"If you store 64 billion cubic metres of water that used to flow to Egypt, is it not going to cause harm?" Prof Sharaky told BBC, dismissing Ethiopia's claims that the dam would not negatively affect Egypt’s water supplies.
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced plans to build the dam in 2011, leading to Egypt losing its "veto power" over the Nile. The move is widely viewed as a political masterstroke by Zenawi, who took advantage of Egypt’s turmoil at a time when the Arab Spring was raging, "Egypt was in a very bad situation, without a president, and our military was busy inside the country," Sharaky told BBC.
Egypt’s claim to the Nile stems from historical, colonial-era treaties, specifically the
1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement with Sudan, which granted it the majority of the water (55.5 billion cubic meters) and veto power over upstream projects.
According to Rashid Abdi, analyst at Kenyan think tank Sahan Research, Britain took the controversial step in a bid to placate Egypt due to its control of the Suez Canal, Europe’s gateway. In essence, whereas Ethiopia’s Blue Nile contributes the lion’s share of the Nile’s waters, Egypt has historically relied on "acquired rights" to control the river. To exacerbate matters, Ethiopia was not a party to the 1929 or 1959 agreements and has argued they are not binding on it. The new dam essentially shifts the balance of power, as Ethiopia now controls the main source of the Nile water, breaking Egypt's traditional monopoly.
That said, Prof Sharaky has ruled out military action by Egypt in Ethiopia and has pointed out that bombing the dam and releasing all that water would be devastating to both countries.
"They are our brothers. We drink from the same water. The Nile is coming from them," he said, adding that negotiations will be used to resolve the dispute.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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