- Eurozone Q1 GDP 0.3%q/q (forecast 0.1%)-EURUSD unimpressed.
- Canada GDP expected to have risen 0.3% in February.
- USD opens mixed: JPY underperforms.
USDCAD: open 1.3687, overnight range 1.3657-1.3701, close 1.3662, WTI $82.72, Gold, $2314.77
The Canadian dollar is trading defensively ahead of this morning’s domestic GDP data. The Canadian economy is expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m in February compared to January’s 0.6% rate. It is heading in the right direction for those hoping for the Bank of Canda to cut rates in June. A lower than expected result combined with a more hawkish than expected FOMC decision tomorrow would be at floor under the Canadian dollar.
There is a lot of US data on tap today, including the employment cost index, Housing price index, Case-Shiller Home Price index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Consumer Confidence. Robust data will support the FOMC decision to delay rate cuts until the end of the year at the earliest.
China’s official Manufacturing PMI data (actual 50.4, vs March 50.8) provided further evidence that economic growth remains sluggish. China begins a three-day holiday starting tomorrow.
Asian equity markets closed higher, led by a 1.24% gain in Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Australia's ASX 200 rose 0.35%. European bourses traded negatively, with the German Dax falling 0.35%. The UK FTSE 100 has scraped out a 0.51% gain as of 7:00 am EDT. S&P 500 futures are modestly lower, down 0.15%. The US 10-year Treasury yield is steady at 4.63%. Gold (XAUUSD) is trading at 2316.37.
EURUSD is adrift in a 1.0689-1.0736 range. German and Eurozone GDP rose a tick more than expected, but higher than expected Eurozone Core-HICP (actual 2.7%, forecast 2.6% y/y) tarnished the outlook. The data won’t prevent the ECB from cutting rates in June, but it may delay additional cuts.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2523-1.2563 range overnight, with the bottom occurring after better than expected Eurozone GDP growth sparked EURGBP demand. Nevertheless, price action will be contained until tomorrow's FOMC decision.
USDJPY traded relatively calmly in a 156.07-156.99 range. BoJ and Finance Ministry officials are playing coy and refusing to confirm or deny that they intervened in the FX market. Better than expected March Industrial Production data (3.8% m/m vs forecast 3.4%) was offset by weaker than forecast Retail trade data (actual -1.2% m/m vs forecast 0.6%).
AUDUSD traded choppily in a 0.6514-0.6568 range. It reached its session low after March retail sales fell 0.4% m/m compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase and downgraded the risk of an RBA rate hike.
